TheBaseballStars

Every league has a pitching guru. Not to toot my own horn, but more times than not, I proudly proclaim that mantle. Once upon a time, I insisted on keeping five pitchers. But even I know that’s not a sound strategy. I prefer to take one or two studs early and fill in my staff with high-upside hurlers on the young side of 30 who are capable of becoming dominant. I’ll leave low-WHIP, low-ERA, low-K, low-risk guys for someone else. Our rankings largely reflect that philosophy. Although The BaseballStars had a pretty wide level of varience — some of our top-10 pitchers didn’t even appear on everyone’s top-20 list — I would feel perfectly comfortable following this list straight down.

When drafting your team, I happen to think it’s much more important to fill your roster with high-upside players than it is to have a top-heavy rotation. Afterall, in head-to-head leagues especially, one bad start can ruin your week. And even in roto leagues, having five to seven strong pitchers is much better than having two studs and a bunch of hacks.

1. Johan Santana (100 points): Look, we may like to swim against the current, but skipping over Santana for anyone is just crazy. There’s no reason to expect him to not improve on last year and no one would be surprised if he wins his third Cy Young.

2. Jake Peavy (95): After a subpar 2006, the Padres ace came back with a vengeance. I suppose some might be concerned about his late-season collapse, but it’s pretty easily explained by the fact that he was well past his career high in innings pitched. Expect him and Johan to duel for the CY.

3. Erik Bedard (86): Switching from a hitters’ haven like Camden to a pitchers’ paradise like Safeco can’t hurt. Until he went down at the end of August, the lefty was the best pitcher in baseball last year. Expect him to pick up where he left off. For the statistically inclined, his 10.93 Ks per 9 innings was the fourth best for starters since 2002.

4. Brandon Webb (85): Since his breakout in 2005, the D’backs ace has steadily improved in almost every area. He’s gone from a groundball specialist to a bonafide power pitcher. He stays healthy, doesn’t allow homers, plays on a good team, should have a decent bullpen and might even strike out 200 batters. What’s not to love?

5. C.C. Sabathia (74): Coming off his first Cy Young, it would appear the big left from Vallejo has finally fulfilled his promise. But this is a contract year and he won’t turn 28 until this summer. I say this is only the tip of the iceberg. There’s some concern about his nearly 260 innings worth of work last year (including post season), but he’s young, big and has a smooth motion. Don’t over-analyze and just draft him.

6. Cole Hamels (66): This is about where TBS started to have differing opinions. He was as high as 4 (me) and as low as 15 (The Jon). Obviously, I like the guy. In two seasons, he’s striking out more than a batter per inning and last season he showed that he could stay relatively healthy. At 24, there’s no reason to think he can’t get better, maybe even challenging Peavy and Santana as soon as this year for the CY.

7. Josh Beckett (64): Like Hamels, the opinions of the Red Sox ace has a high degree of variance. On one hand, there are those of us who just can’t shake the memory of his roller-coaster career — one moment poised to be the most dominant pitcher in baseball, the next wrecking your season with an untimely injury or late-season collapse. I’m willing to believe that last year is what we’ll come to expect.

8. Justin Verlander (57): I’m not exactly sure what’s not to like about the Tigers’ fire-balling wonder. In just his second full season, his strikeouts began to resemble totals you’d expect of someone who can touch triple-digits on the gun, and he did it while improving his control, cutting down on HRs allowed (both on a per inning basis) and significantly lowering his WHIP. If he keeps this up, he’ll start winning CYs this year.

9 . John Lackey (52): Neither as young, sexy nor impressive as any of hte pitcher previously mentioned, “Slingblade” is nevertheless a legitimate ace. Last season was a career best and I wouldn’t expect any improvement, but even a slight fall off from 19 wins, a 3.01 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP won’t be any problem.

10. Dan Haren (48): On one hand, the D’backs’ newest arm is moving to a better pitchers’ league. On the other, he’s moving a much better hitters’ park. His second-half collapse can’t be ignored, but neither can his first-half breakout. Draft him with the understanding that he’s unlikely to equal last year’s numbers.

11. Roy Halladay (42): Steady, steady, steady. Despite injuries, he still won 16 games, posted an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.24. Not bad numbers no matter how you slice it. Just understand that he’s no longer the pitcher 2003 CY. His strikeout numbers are lower than any other elite pitcher and he’s been battling injuries each of the past four seasons.

12. Aaron Harang (38): No one gets excited about Aaron from Cincinnati, but he’s a proven workhorse that will help in strikeouts, post an ERA below 4.00 despite playing in an extreme hitters’ park and win 15-18 games.

13. Chris Young (37): His big ballpark helps this extreme flyball pitcher. His 10 HRs allowed last year will simply not hold up. But considering his ability to keep runners off the bases, it’s less of a concern than you might think. As long as he’s in Petco, he’s among the NL’s best.

14. Scott Kazmir (32): He stayed healthy for the first time last year and responded by posting numbers all of his fans thought he would. With the Rays’ defense expected to be among the most-improved in baseball, don’t be surprised to see Kazmir among the top 10 by the end of the season.

15. John Smotlz (32): At 40 years old, he’s easily the oldest pitcher in our top 20. Since resurrecting his career as a starter in 2005, he’s been just as good as he was before his Tommy John surgery. The only question is how long he can keep it up.

16. Felix Hernandez (31): Poised to fulfill his promise last year, his season was interrupted by a forearm injury that sidetracked his blazing start. After missing about a month, he returned and showed flashes of dominance but never put together a string of more than three strong starts together. Healthy again and with added help in the rotation, the 22-year-old still has his best ahead.

17. Roy Oswalt (25): He’ll barely turn 30 this year, but why does it feel like his career is already on the downslope. Maybe his early successes simply spoiled us. Maybe the huge number of innings he’s thrown have started to catch up to him. Maybe he’s just pitching smarter, thus the rapid decline in strikeouts. Whatever’s the case, draft him with the knowledge that he’s no longer a power pitcher. He is going to throw 200-plus innings, with 14-19 games and post an ERA around 3.00.

18. Carlos Zambrano (24): By no means old, like Oswalt one gets the impression Zambrano’s best days may be behind him. His walk numbers are as scary as ever (101 in 2007), but his declining strikeout totals (177 last year) make that much harder to stomach than they used to. He’s durable, but it appears his window into becoming a dominant pitcher has closed.

19. Fausto Carmona (14): After a disastrous attempt to make him the closer in 2006, the Indians struck gold when they inserted him into the rotation last year. Carmona’s stuff draws raves, and at 24 there’s no reason he can’t equal the numbers he posted last year.

20. Chad Billingsley (13): More so than any other pitcher on our list, the Dodgers second-year flame-thrower is on here because of potential. He won only 12 games and tossed just 147 innings in the bigs last year, but he was as dominant as any pitcher in the second half. If you want to get in on the ground floor, be prepared to spend a reasonably high pick on this guy.