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Draft Advice: Risk Management

Much of a fantasy draft can be pretty scripted. We all know the top players and by draft time, the sexy sleepers will avail themselves as well. However fantasy leagues are won with the risks you take, or don’t take. Chances are, you will have to reach for a player or two. You may even need to hold off on a player and hope he is available a round or two later. Here are some players that should be looked at in terms of the risk vs. reward they might bring you in 2008.

High risk/ high reward: Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are two frustrating mofos. These two potential aces are out here together because they are essentially the same guy. Both have the stuff to be top 5 pitchers and neither can stay healthy for longer than a one month stretch at any time. People still draft them as though they are reliable sources for fantasy production. If either of these cats slide past the 7th round, the risk factor has probably reduced itself enough that it’s worth the gamble.

High risk/ low reward: Andruw Jones is overrated. People think back to his 50 plus home run campaigns and consider him a top flight outfielder and consistent contributor. Yeah, he is consistent at hitting around .260. He’s a one trick pony. Usually you get homers and RBIs and little else. These are not numbers worthy of the high pick you will probably need to acquire him. His move to Los Angeles and the cavernous ballparks of the NL West will continue to plague the former slugger’s power numbers. He couldn’t even produce in a contract year last season.

Low risk/ high reward: Daniel Cabrera is Mr. Potential. He has some of the filthiest mixture of heat and junk in the bigs. Unfortunately, he can’t control it. He can be a WHIP and ERA killer all by himself. However, when he is on, his stuff is dominant. He has been around long enough that most are no longer enamored with his potential. I see a him as a guy who will be a late bloomer. I’m not sure that this will be his year, but when the top and middle tier pitchers are gone, Cabrera won’t be. You could hit the jackpot on a late round flier with this guy. If it doesn’t work out, cut bait and hit the waiver wire.

High risk/ high reward: Carlos Pena was a top prospect for the Texas Rangers and supposed to fill Jason Giambi’s shoes in Oakland before getting the bust label. He was then dumped by Detroit and Boston before landing on his feet in Tampa. Well to be fair, he did more than land on his feet. Pena blew up. Because of his monster 46 home run 121 RBI coming out party last year, he will be high on many managers radars. He may very well have just figured it all out, but just know that for the past five years, team have tried to give him a starting job and he has blown it. You will need to have the guts to take this guy in the first eight rounds if you want him. Just know that last year was the anomaly compared to six full seasons of previous Major League experience.

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